For some years it has been felt that the tipping point economically is at 5% efficiency for organic photovoltaics and that has now been exceeded by several developers. Photovoltaics (PV) is progressing from bulk silicon to thin film silicon and now printed polymer. Rigid substrates are being replaced with flexible ones to reduce cost of manufacture and installation and permit installation in new places. For example, solar tape can conform to the side of a ship or be stuck along the concrete barriers between motorway lanes and be many kilometres in length without taking up any space.
These three generations complement rather than replace each other. Inefficient organic photovoltaics needs a large footprint, so it will not be on calculators, for example, any time soon. However, it may be the first to be viable on very large, uneven areas because of much lower cost offsetting the inefficiency. That cost is as much in installation as in the cost of the flexible tape and sheeting vs. such things as heavy, brittle glass supporting some silicon photovoltaics, for instance. A factor of ten in cost of ownership may be possible. Indeed, printed organic photovoltaics may be more damage tolerant as well. In glass, damage can propagate but not in plastic film and damage in a large area will have proportionally less impact. Even stitchable and fabric forms can be contemplated.
On cue, the first small production quantities are expected from several companies in 2007. Konarka and LumoFlex (now in stealth mode) may be among them.