3D printing (or additive manufacturing, as some would prefer to call it) has come of age, surpassing $1bn in revenues during 2012 and with growth expected to continue across all target markets to 2025. Across the board, printer manufacturers are reporting a surge in sales, and some cannot meet demand as awareness of the technologies and what they offer grows.
Highest growth will be seen in the medical and dental fields, as well as the jewellery, designer products, and architectural areas, but 3D printing is beginning to lock into the capital investment cycles of the aerospace and automotive industries (IDTechEx report*: 3D Printing 2013-2025: Technologies, Markets, Players)
Growth will also be relatively strong in the aerospace sector, especially towards the end of the report period (2025), by which point aerospace companies expect to be employing 3D printing with a vengeance as qualification hurdles are jumped.
Several capex cycles in manufacturing industries are now turning over which will drive a relatively modest fall in the market in coming years with an expected compound annual growth rate of about 7.5 percent for the period 2012-2016.
A (nearly) unique selling point
3D printing presents opportunities for the introduction of cheap complexity into manufacturing. Unitized, albeit currently relatively small, structures can be printed which either could not be manufactured via alternative means, or would have been prohibitively expensive to do so.
Avenues for cost effective mass customisation now exist, a fact that has not been missed in various medical fields, which are increasingly adopting 3D printing for the manufacture of prosthetics and orthopaedic implants, optimised and tailored to a particular patient via CT or MRI scan data.
Swedish Arcam AB, for example, claims that more than 20,000 implants have been generated via its electron beam melting technology which now has both CE-certification and, more recently, FDA clearance.
The generation of customised implants derived from CT or MRI scans is not a novel concept, however, and a number of medical device companies worldwide have for many years been using CNC machines to do exactly that.
Whilst 3D printers are certainly capable of generating more complex structures, CNC machines are compatible with a wider range of materials and do not suffer from some of the weaknesses that are associated with 3D printed parts. Many orthopaedic implants are also relatively simple in structure.
3D printer manufacturers must place themselves clearly in this market against an incumbent technology in order to ensure that the medical sector clearly understand the benefits offered.
Potential for low-volume, high-value manufacturing also exists in the aerospace industry; some ducts built into the F-18 military aircraft, for example, are already 3D printed in engineering plastics. Qualification of processes and materials remains an issue in this field, as does the limited size of unitised components that can currently be printed.
A question of price
Price remains an issue at the high end of the market, however, with several users reporting that printer prices have not moved significantly, as has been the case in the low to mid-range printer markets. Printers that used to cost $1m still cost $1m, whilst printers that used to sell for $100,000 are now more likely to have a $50,000 price tag.
Volumes are still too low at the high end of the market for printer manufacturers to have gained economies of scale and this is inhibiting uptake. The relatively small number of manufacturers with highly differentiated products and high entry costs to this market mean that prices are unlikely to fall at the top end for the foreseeable future.
Material prices also remain at a premium, with 3D printer manufacturers reporting that their materials are optimised to their machines, effectively reducing competition. Prices for a kilogram of titanium powder for printing have been reported as high as US$700, whereas a kilogram of titanium metal comes in at well under US$100.
3D printing versus CNC machining
The report, informed by interviews with both major players in 3D printing as well as end-user organisations, addresses all aspects of 3D printing including the technologies, current and future applications, patent and publication trends, company profiles, and detailed forecasts are provided in comparison to the growth of the Computer Numerical Control (CNC) market.
CNC machining is used across a similar range of target markets as 3D printing. CNC machines are used for rapid prototyping, tooling, and low volume production runs. Customers include the aerospace and automotive industries, also the medical sector and specialised machines exist serving the dental and jewellery fields. A modest hobbyist market of CNC home-users also exists.
It is interesting to note that the advent of CNC machining was described as an industrial revolution by many and that its inventor, John T. Parsons, was awarded by the Society of Manufacturing Engineers with a plaque in 1975 naming him "The Father of the Second Industrial Revolution".
The market for CNC machining is periodic nature due to the capital expenditure cycles of the markets both it and 3D printing serve; the 3D printing market is likely to observe a similar periodicity as it penetrates into the same sectors.
During times of capex turnover, revenues for the 3D printer manufacturers will be bolstered by continued materials sales, although many users will remain careful with materials usage whilst prices remain so high.
Geographic breakdown
The market for 3D printers is strong in the USA with activity also picking up in Europe, although Asia remains relatively weak for now (see Figure 2).
China has not yet seen much commercial activity in 3D printing, although academic centres have been rigorously publishing in the academic journals on the subject. Revenues for exports of Chinese printer manufacturers remain in excess of their domestic sales.
A third industrial revolution is unlikely, but an industrial renovation is certainly on the cards.
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Dr Wendy Kneissl is a senior technology analyst at IDTechEx