Despite the distinct possibility that the UK government will miss its recently revised target of a 34% reduction in carbon emissions by 2020 based on 1990 levels, the Environmental Audit Committee’s (EAC’s) most recent report is now calling for a 42% reduction. While the government is broadly right to use the objective of limiting the rise in average global temperature to no more that 2°C as the backbone for its targets and budgets, says the EAC, it must be ready to establish credible emissions reduction pathways that go well beyond what is currently regarded as "politically possible".
The rationale behind this appears to be a need to act urgently – a key message of the Stern Report. More emissions in the near term will result in the world being locked-in to higher temperature rises and the cost of mitigation becomes that much greater. A higher target in 2020 does more to bear down on cumulative emissions, the EAC argues, and is consistent with the key messages from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Stern, that as much action as possible should be taken as early as possible. In his report, Lord Stern said that the need for developed economies to cut per capita emissions by at least 80% by 2050 implies reductions of 20-40% are needed by 2020.
The EAC recommends that the government should move to cut CO2 emissions by 42% in ten years time, only moving to increase the 2020 target once it is on track to meet its current targets and budgets. This would entail a strengthening of existing policies and the bringing forward of new measures, like steadily driving up the price of carbon to a level where renewable and low-carbon investments become more economically viable.
Strengthening the policy framework and bringing forward new measures to get the UK to meet its existing targets and budgets are higher priorities than setting more stretching targets, the EAC cautions - even if those new targets are scientifically expedient. Unless we are on track to meet current targets, increasing them will only widen the shortfall in delivery. In other words, we risk biting off rather more than we can chew.
Apparently less exercised by such calls to action, the EU has persistently maintained a target of 20% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2020. The report’s authors are unimpressed, believing this to be based more on "political feasibility than up-to-date science".In the wake of the report’s publication, energy and climate change minister, Joan Ruddock was at pains to reinforce the government’s position. "We’ve already cut the UK’s emissions by nearly double the Kyoto target and are on track to meet the first three carbon budgets", she said. "It’s right that we strengthen and sustain these efforts and we’ve a detailed plan to make that happen, which includes a world leading policy on clean coal, plans for new nuclear, a massive increase in offshore wind plus a wide range of help for people to save energy in their homes. But we also need a global move to low carbon, which is why we must complete the unfinished business of Copenhagen and get a comprehensive international deal which includes tough emissions reduction targets."
Les Hunt
Editor