Up to three million UK jobs in declining occupations could disappear by 2035, largely due to AI and automation – more than previously forecast.
This is one of many findings published in an NFER report saying extensive changes are required to build a system of lifelong learning from cradle to grave, ensuring people possess the necessary skills for life and work in a labour market drastically altered by technology.
The paper says jobs in at-risk occupations, such as administrative, secretarial, customer service and machine operations, are declining at a much faster rate than previously predicted, and that between one and three million could vanish by 2035.
The publication is the final stage of The Skills Imperative 2035: Essential skills for tomorrow's workforce, a five-year-long programme funded by the Nuffield Foundation.
The report is the culmination of eight working papers designed to identify what the labour market will look like by 2035, what ‘Essential Employment Skills’ (EES) will be most needed to do these jobs, and who is most and least likely to be affected by changes in jobs and skills requirements.
It outlines the collective response required to help young people and those already in work.
The report identifies six EES needed for the future: communication; collaboration; problem-solving; organising, planning and prioritising; creative thinking and information literacy.
It has identified shortages in these EES, which are likely to get worse without action, and stresses how they will become increasingly important as they complement growing workplace technology.
The paper goes on to say that the number of jobs in the labour market as a whole is actually expected to grow by 2035, but that most growth will be in professional and associate professional occupations such as science, engineering and legal roles which heavily utilise these six EES. Most mid- and low-skilled jobs will decline at an increasing pace.
Jude Hillary, the programme’s Principal Investigator and NFER’s Co-Head of UK Policy and Practice, said: “The time has come to tackle this critical challenge head-on, and we all have a role to play.
“Meeting projected skills shortages means a collective response from government, employers and across the education and skills systems.
“We need to strengthen support in the early years, tackle inequalities in schools, strengthen pathways into growing jobs, and rebuild the adult skills system to deliver growth that benefits everyone.”
Josh Hillman, Director of Education at the Nuffield Foundation, said: “The Skills Imperative 2035 is our most significant investment ever in education research.
“With accelerating labour market changes impacting both the jobs available in the future and the skills and qualifications needed to do them, its findings could not be more relevant or better timed.
“The report’s focus is on what are now widely recognised as the essential employment skills that underpin employability and are increasingly sought after in the evolving world of work.
“It makes a major contribution to our understanding of how to better value, develop, and support these skills.
“Crucially, it also provides the education system, employers, and policymakers with evidence to help ensure the workforce can continue to build and use them effectively in a dynamic labour market.”
Other findings:
A YouGov poll, commissioned by the programme in October, suggests the general public may not be aware of the scale of the issues highlighted by our research.
Two-thirds (65 percent) of non-retired people are confident they will develop their skills at the right pace to keep up with changes in jobs and skills requirements over the next decade.
The same poll also said:
• 53 percent of workers think it is likely automation or AI will affect their job in the next ten years. 32 percent of workers think it is unlikely
• 45 percent of UK adults said they currently feel supported by employers to develop new skills. 43 percent do not feel this is the case
• Only 24 percent of UK adults said they feel the UK government supports them to develop new skills. 66 percent do not feel they are currently supported
• 63 percent of UK adults think their education did prepare them with the essential employment skills they need for the world of work. 34 percent thought the opposite