A new Climate Analytics study shows that the world can still return to well below 1.5°C of warming this century if countries pursue the “highest possible ambition” in climate action.
A new study from Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) shows that, even after years of insufficient action, the world can still return to well below 1.5°C of warming this century – if countries pursue the “highest possible ambition” in climate action, starting now.
The analysis, published in the new report, ‘Rescuing 1.5°C: new evidence on highest possible ambition to deliver the Paris Agreement, updates IPCC AR6 scenarios to reflect today’s higher starting emissions and set out what is needed to limit overshoot above 1.5ºC, and to get temperatures back well below 1.5ºC before 2100.
The
report’s Highest Possible Ambition scenario shows how transformative climate action, scaling up renewables and electrifying the global economy, can slow and then halt global warming before 2050, and limit peak warming to around 1.7ºC.
Temperatures could then be brought back down well below 1.5ºC by 2100, driven by a rapid fossil fuel phaseout, strong reductions in methane emissions, and scaling up carbon removal technologies.
The new scenario provides a roadmap to rescue 1.5ºC. In the scenario, global CO2 emissions reach net zero before 2050, and global greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero in the 2060s.
These milestones are key to stopping temperatures rising by 2050 and then putting them on a declining path to well below 1.5ºC by 2100.
“Overshoot of 1.5ºC is a woeful political failure and will bring increased
damages and risk of tipping points that otherwise could’ve been avoided.
“But this roadmap shows is it is still within our power to bring warming back well below 1.5ºC by 2100.
“We must do all we can to limit any time we spend above this safety threshold to minimise the risk of irreversible climate damages and the devastation that could be caused by crossing tipping points,” said Bill Hare, CEO, Climate Analytics.
“The last five years have cost us precious time in this critical decade of climate action,” added Dr Neil Grant, Senior Expert, Climate Analytics.
“However, they have also seen a revolution in renewables and batteries, which have shattered records across the globe.
“Riding these tailwinds can help turbocharge our clean energy future and catch up on lost time.
“The window
to minimise overshoot is still open but narrowing fast. The choice is ours.”
Headline findings:
• Temperatures: Global warming reaches 1.5°C around 2030, leading to a period of overshoot. In the report’s Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, warming peaks around ~1.7°C and falls to ~1.2°C by 2100. The overshoot lasts ~40 years. This is longer and higher than in the IPCC AR6 scenarios, because of delays over the last five years.
• Electrification: Under the HPA scenario, electricity meets almost two-thirds of all energy demand by 2050. Electrification outperforms other options on cost, scalability and energy efficiency.
• Fossil fuel phaseout: In this scenario, electricity, hydrogen and targeted deployment of biomass and synthetic fuels push fossil fuels out of the energy system. A fossil-free economy is achievable by 2070, with advanced
economies achieving this by 2050.
• Cutting methane. Under the HPA scenario, methane emissions fall 20 percent by 2030 and 30 percent by 2035, relative to 2020 levels. This is driven particularly by cuts to methane emissions in the energy sector, which are halved over the 2020s.
• Scaling up carbon removal. Under the HPA scenario, removal technologies need to be deployed rapidly, with over 5 billion tonnes of CO2 captured and removed by 2050. However, even if CDR technologies ultimately scale half as quickly, the HPA scenario would still see temperatures back below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
• Net-zero timing: A rapid fossil phaseout combined with scaling up carbon removal brings CO2 emissions to global net-zero before 2050. The HPA scenario also reaches net-zero greenhouse gases in the 2060s, roughly a decade earlier than AR6 scenarios. This is essential to drive temperatures back down well below 1.5°C by 2100.