From 30 Nov 2023 to 12 Dec 2023, world leaders, businesses and civil society gathered at COP28 with a shared determination to address climate gaps and accelerate efforts to mitigate the impact of climate change.
Over 85,000 participants attended the two-week conference, with the aim to foster collaboration and build partnerships to tackle the challenges ahead.
A pivotal shift: Phasing out fossil fuels
In a historic moment, COP28 concluded with the adoption of The UAE Consensus, which called upon parties to transition away from fossil fuels and set specific targets for renewable energy.
The deal, reached after an intense two weeks of negotiation, outlines the need to "transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner ... to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science."
The deal, though not as ambitious as some had hoped, encourages more decisive climate action to combat the escalating threats of climate change and extreme weather events.
It marks the first time that a COP agreement has explicitly addressed the need to phase out fossil fuels, despite scientific consensus stating that they are the root cause of climate change, which means that doing so is crucial if the world is to be successful in keeping global warming within 1.5°C.
Denmark's Climate Minister, Dan Jørgensen, stated, "It’s embarrassing that it took 28 years, but now we’re finally there. Now it finally seems like the world has acknowledged that we need to move away from fossil [fuels]."
Global stocktake: Recognising the urgency
The central achievement of COP28 is the global stocktake, encompassing every element negotiated and providing countries with a framework to bolster climate action plans by 2025.
The agreement recognises the need to cut global greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent by 2030 compared to 2019 levels.
However, it also acknowledges that countries are currently off track in reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement goals, it calls for a tripling of renewable energy capacity and doubling of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. Despite increased global efforts to transition to renewable energy, oil, gas and coal currently account for around 80 percent of the world's energy.
As such, the Global Decarbonization Accelerator (GDA) introduced new initiatives focusing specifically on energy, including the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge and the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter.
The former, which has been endorsed by 132 countries, aims to increase installed renewable energy generation capacity to at least 11,000GW and to double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements to more than four percent by 2030.
The latter commits signatories to zero methane emissions, ending routine flaring by 2030, and achieving net zero operations by 2050.
In addition, the stocktake encourages an acceleration of efforts to diminish unabated coal power, eliminate inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, and implement measures facilitating the equitable transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems.
Who’s responsible?
China, the world's largest carbon polluter, suggested that developed countries bear historical responsibilities for climate change and should lead the way in transitioning from fossil fuels.
However, concerns have been raised that the financial commitments from richer nations have, so far, been inadequate.
Rachel Cleetus, Policy Director at the Union of Concerned Scientists, argued that "the finance and equity provisions... are seriously insufficient and must be improved in the time ahead in order to ensure low- and middle-income countries can transition to clean energy and close the energy poverty gap.”
Is it enough?
Whilst the achievements of COP28 have been largely welcomed, some argue that simply acknowledging the need to phase down fossil fuels is not enough – more concrete commitments are needed.
Whilst the deal called for a “transition away” from fossil fuels, the stronger term “phase-out”, which had been backed by 130 of the 198 countries attending the conference, was blocked by petrostates, including Saudi Arabia.
This has been largely criticised by global scientists. Dr Friederike Otto, a Climatologist at Imperial College London, said: “Until fossil fuels are phased out, the world will continue to become a more dangerous, more expensive and more uncertain place to live.
“With every vague verb, every empty promise in the final text, millions more people will enter the frontline of climate change and many will die.”
Professor Martin Siegert, a Polar Scientist and Deputy Vice-Chancellor at the University of Exeter, added: “The science is perfectly clear. COP28, by not making a clear declaration to stop fossil fuel burning is a tragedy for the planet and our future.
“The world is heating faster and more powerfully than the COP response to deal with it.”
This sentiment was echoed by those speaking on behalf of small islands, including Anne Rasmussen of Samoa, who said: "It is not enough for us to reference the science and then make agreements that ignore what the science is telling us we need to do."
Beyond fossil fuels
While the phase-out of fossil fuels took centre stage, COP28 also delivered historic outcomes in operationalising the Loss and Damage fund, securing early pledges of $792 million, as well as establishing a framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation.
Additionally, it institutionalised the role of the Youth Climate Champion, ensuring the recognition of climate policy demands of children and youth from over 160 countries.
What’s next?
UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasised the imperative of turning the pledges of COP28 into real-world outcomes, stating, "Science tells us that limiting global heating to 1.5°C will be impossible without the phase-out of fossil fuels. The era of fossil fuels must end – and it must end with justice and equity."
With the agreements of COP28 made, the focus now shifts to the practical implementation of these agreements on the ground, with the realisation that the actions agreed upon are a "climate-action lifeline, not a finish line", as stated by UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell.
“Whilst we didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the beginning of the end,” said Stiell in his closing speech. “Now, all governments and businesses need to turn these pledges into real-economy outcomes, without delay.”
The next COP conference will take place in Azerbaijan from 11-22 November 2024. This will be followed by COP30, which will be hosted in Brazil from 10-21 November 2025.