A troubled project with escalating costs
HS2 has been seen as a symbol of the Government's commitment to its levelling-up agenda and regional development. However, the project has been plagued by delays and escalating costs since its inception.
In March, Transport Secretary Mark Harper announced work on the section between Birmingham and Crewe, which is due to continue to Manchester, would have to be pushed back until 2025, due to inflation.
The proposed new station at London Euston is also due to be delayed by two years for the same reason.
HS2 was originally designed to run between London and Birmingham before splitting into two sections to Manchester and Leeds. However, in 2021, it was announced that the eastern leg from Birmingham to Leeds would be cut back, so that the new line would stop at the East Midlands.
Despite such cuts, the budget for HS2 has more than doubled over the past decade. Initially estimated at £33 billion, the current estimated cost is around £71 billion.
The latest developments
Now discussions between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt have raised doubts about the northern extension of HS2. First reported by The Independent, a leaked document titled "Savings Table" outlined projected costs for the northern phases of HS2, intensifying speculation about the project's future.
Amid mounting pressure on the Prime Minister from Tory MPs to cut taxes before the next election, the Treasury is considering options that could lead to significant cost savings, including scrapping the line between Birmingham and Manchester.
According to the Independent, the Government has already spent £2.3bn on design work and buying up land for phase two of the project – money could not be recovered even if it is scrapped. However, estimates suggest that cancelling it could save up to £34 billion.
The balancing act: Passengers vs taxpayers
Asked whether the line between Birmingham and Manchester will be built as promised, the Prime Minister’s official spokesman said: “We are committed to HS2, to the project”, but refused to comment on whether the northern phase would be shelved or scrapped.
“We are, as you know, looking at the rephasing of the work in the best interests of passengers and taxpayers," he added.
Reactions and concerns
The prospect of scaling back or abandoning HS2 has elicited strong reactions from various quarters. Supporters argue that HS2 would transform connectivity in the North of England and that the Government needs to honour its commitments to levelling up the country's infrastructure. They emphasise the economic benefits, job creation, and long-term infrastructure improvements the project promises to bring.
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham voiced frustration at the proposed plans, accusing the Government of treating northern passengers as "second-class citizens" and widening the economic divide between the north and south of England: "What we are going to end up with here is in the southern half of the country, a modern, high-speed rail network, and the northern half of the country left with crumbling Victorian infrastructure. That won't level us up, it will do the exact opposite."
Meanwhile, former Chancellor George Osborne warned that abandoning plans to “transform connectivity to the north of England” would be a “real tragedy”.
Osborne further pointed out the success of other European countries in establishing high-speed rail: “Yes, we’ve got to get costs under control – and we’ve got to ask why other countries in Europe can build high-speed lines much more cheaply than we can.
“But there’s a much bigger point here which is: are we prepared to take the difficult, long-term decisions, which are controversial, on infrastructure to provide for our country’s future?”
He went on: “If you cancel this leg that is 13 years of work, preparation...then you’re basically saying nothing is going to be built.”
Others welcomed the news, however, highlighting the project's rising costs and urging the Government to prioritise fiscal responsibility and value for money. They argue that postponing or revising HS2 could free up resources for other critical infrastructure projects in the north and Midlands.
The broader implications
The uncertain future of HS2's northern extension is not merely a matter of balancing budgets; it carries broader implications for the Government's commitment to regional equality, economic development, and the long-term vision of the UK's transport infrastructure.
As discussions continue, transparency, commitment, and a clear vision for the project's role in the nation's progress are essential.
“The Government needs to kill the speculation and make its intentions clear, and it ought to commit clearly and unambiguously to delivering the project as planned,” said a spokesman for the High Speed Rail Group.
“The 30,000 people delivering HS2 deserve this. Our future generations deserve this. The north and Midlands deserve this.”