The Internet is slowing down and it's not because your ISP promised more than he could deliver. The issue's a bit wider than that. About 15 months ago, Deloitte & Touch was predicting a major Internet traffic jam that would bring the whole thing to a grinding halt sometime in 2007. OK, that didn't quite happen, but the threat doesn't appear to have abated.
The problem seems to be multi-pronged; the user base is expanding at a rate of knots, we’re all apparently hungry for video and streaming TV, and – like the UK road system – the infrastructure is creaking ominously. Even two or three years back there was talk about a two-tiered web that provided a faster network for data-hungry applications such as video and another to serve the rest.
This spawned a movement in the US to enshrine ‘Network Neutrality’ in law and prevent ISPs from configuring their networks to favour one type of user over another. The so-called Network Neutrality Mandate has since foundered on divisions between those who regard it as an essential step in the evolution of the Web, and those that believe it will act as a brake on infrastructure development.
Last year, YouTube alone used as much bandwidth as was needed for the entire Internet in 2000, so we can’t really cite a lack of core network upgrade and development as the culprit. Some experts point their fingers at that Achilles heel of the Web – the so-called ‘last mile of copper’ between the telephone exchange and your home.
A fibre optic replacement is claimed to be the solution to this problem, but BT suggests this will cost in the region of £20bn to install – and that presumably doesn’t include the cost of disruption to road traffic. Not surprisingly, BT places the emphasis elsewhere, claiming that the key was not in speeding up connections to people’s homes, but through improvements in ‘backhaul and core networks’ – the wider geographic links that operate nationwide.
The BBC is currently the target of much criticism about its new iPlayer service, which lets you access television programmes via your PC. It’s not the content of this service that’s at issue, but the huge strain that a massively popular video-streaming channel is now placing on an Internet already busting at the seams. ISPs are currently calling on the Corporation to stump up a share in the estimated £831m cost of essential network upgrades to cope with the volume and demand.
Of course, the BBC denies that iPlayer is having such an impact and states, quite reasonably, that the viewing public would feel somewhat aggrieved if part of its licence fee is diverted to improving the business models of ISPs!
The latest ‘end-of-the-Internet-world-as-we-know-it’ is scheduled for 2010 and while it is not envisaged that the web will crash and burn, exactly, many expect it to slow to a crawl, with almost as devastating an effect.
The ISPs may be accused of focusing too much on delivering their services at fiercely competitive rates, all to the detriment of their network infrastructures. However, they are highly unlikely to sit back and see their businesses eroded for want of a technological solution. The Internet bubble at the beginning of this century saw the installation of massive over-capacity. Yes, it was all subsequently swallowed up – so, what’s to prevent a repeat. Necessity is the mother of invention, so we are told.
Les Hunt
Editor